When Donald John Trump welcomed Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud to the White House on November 18, 2025, it wasn’t just a handshake—it was a geopolitical reset. The meeting, the first between the two leaders since March 2017, ended an eight-year freeze in high-level U.S.-Saudi diplomacy, sparked by the brutal 2018 murder of journalist Jamal Ahmad Khashoggi. At 1600 GMT, the Saudi Crown Prince’s motorcade rolled onto the South Lawn, signaling a dramatic thaw in relations that had once left even Trump’s own intelligence agencies questioning whether the U.S. should ever again sit across the table from him.
From Ice to Icebreaker: The Diplomatic Reboot
The last time these two sat together in the Oval Office, the world was a different place. In 2017, Trump hailed Saudi Arabia as a strategic partner in countering Iran and pledged $110 billion in arms deals. But after Khashoggi’s dismemberment inside the Istanbul consulate, U.S. officials privately labeled the Crown Prince a “rogue actor.” The Biden administration froze arms sales and diplomatic visits. Now, with Trump back in the White House, the calculus has flipped. The $600 billion investment pledge—originally announced during Trump’s 2017 Riyadh visit—has seen only $127 billion materialize. With U.S. infrastructure crumbling and inflation lingering, Washington is desperate for capital. Riyadh, meanwhile, needs legitimacy, military tech, and a shield against Iran.The $85 Billion Defense Deal and the F-35 Factor
The centerpiece of the talks? A potential $85 billion defense pact centered on 50 Lockheed Martin Corporation F-35A stealth fighters. At $80 million per jet, plus $45 billion in weapons, maintenance, and training, this would be the largest foreign F-35 sale in history. But it’s not just about planes. Behind closed doors, negotiators from the U.S. Department of State and Saudi’s Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Ministry of Foreign Affairs hashed out protocols for AI-driven surveillance systems, drone integration, and cyber defense frameworks. The deal hinges on one condition: Saudi Arabia must formally commit to the $600 billion investment pledge, with binding timelines for disbursement.Abraham Accords Expansion: A New Middle East Order
The most surprising development? Saudi Arabia’s agreement to join the Abraham Accords. Signed in 2020 by Israel, the UAE, and Bahrain, the Accords normalized relations without resolving the Palestinian issue. Now, Riyadh is ready to follow. That means direct flights between Tel Aviv and Riyadh, joint economic zones in Neom, and intelligence sharing against Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The move would transform the region’s balance of power—creating a de facto U.S.-Saudi-Israeli axis. But it’s not without risk. The Palestinian Authority has called the move “a betrayal,” and protests flared in Ramallah and Amman within hours of the announcement.
Human Rights at the Table—And Left Behind
The elephant in the room? Khashoggi. Reporters pressed both leaders during the brief post-meeting remarks. No direct quotes were released, but multiple sources confirm the Crown Prince offered “no apology, no accountability.” Human Rights Watch Executive Director Tirana Hassan issued a sharp statement: “No military deal should be sealed without justice for Jamal.” Senator Ben Cardin (D-MD), chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, warned that Congress could block the F-35 sale if human rights conditions aren’t met. Trump, however, dismissed the criticism as “politics from people who don’t understand real security.”Nuclear Ambitions and the 123 Agreement
Saudi Arabia also seeks U.S. help building two 1,400-megawatt nuclear reactors—part of its Vision 2030 plan to diversify energy. But under Section 123 of the Atomic Energy Act, the U.S. can only transfer nuclear tech if Riyadh agrees to forgo uranium enrichment and reprocessing—essentially accepting a “peaceful use only” framework. That’s a non-starter for Riyadh, which has long sought the capability to enrich uranium as a hedge against Iran. The two sides agreed to continue talks, but the issue remains a potential dealbreaker.
What’s Next? The Clock Is Ticking
A U.S. technical delegation will fly to Riyadh on December 5, 2025, to draft binding agreements. By February 2026, the White House expects final signatures on the defense, investment, and Abraham Accords packages. If completed, the deal would be Trump’s crowning foreign policy achievement—and a major win for Saudi Arabia’s global rehabilitation. But if the $600 billion investment remains unfulfilled, or if Congress blocks the arms sale, the entire architecture could collapse. Analysts at DWS News warn: “This isn’t peace—it’s a transaction. And transactions can be undone.”Market Reactions and Global Ripples
Wall Street reacted fast. Lockheed Martin shares surged 3.2% in pre-market trading on November 19. Northrop Grumman rose 2.8%. Oil prices dipped slightly as traders priced in greater regional stability. But in Tehran, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard called the deal “a declaration of war.” In Cairo, Egypt’s foreign ministry issued a cautious statement urging “inclusion of the Palestinian cause.” Meanwhile, in Jerusalem, Israeli officials quietly began preparing for Saudi dignitaries—something unthinkable just a year ago.Frequently Asked Questions
Why is the $600 billion investment pledge so important to the U.S.?
The U.S. is facing record federal debt and infrastructure decay. The $600 billion Saudi pledge—mostly unfulfilled since 2017—could fund ports, highways, and clean energy projects without adding to the national deficit. Only $127 billion has been delivered so far, and the White House insists binding timelines are non-negotiable this time.
What’s the connection between the Khashoggi murder and the F-35 sale?
U.S. law prohibits arms sales to foreign officials implicated in gross human rights violations. While Trump has ignored this precedent, Congress holds the purse strings. If senators like Ben Cardin block the sale, the F-35 deal dies—even if Trump signs it. The Crown Prince’s refusal to acknowledge responsibility remains the biggest legal and moral obstacle.
Why would Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords now?
Saudi Arabia sees Israel as a strategic counterweight to Iran. Joint intelligence, technology sharing, and access to Israeli tech firms in cybersecurity and water desalination are huge incentives. Plus, normalization could unlock U.S. political cover for its domestic reforms and reduce isolation in the Arab world after years of criticism over Yemen and Khashoggi.
What happens if the Palestinian issue isn’t addressed?
The U.S. and Saudi Arabia are betting that regional stability will pressure Palestinians into negotiations. But without progress on statehood, Arab public opinion could turn violently against Riyadh. Protests in Jordan and Lebanon are already growing. If unrest spreads, the entire normalization effort could backfire, destabilizing the very region the deal aims to secure.
Is this deal likely to survive beyond Trump’s presidency?
Unlikely. The deal is built on Trump’s personal relationship with the Crown Prince and his disregard for human rights norms. A future Democratic administration would likely reevaluate the F-35 sale, freeze nuclear cooperation, and demand accountability for Khashoggi. The $600 billion investment, meanwhile, could be renegotiated—or scrapped—without Trump’s leverage.
How does this affect global oil markets?
Stability in the Gulf typically keeps oil prices steady. But if Iran responds with cyberattacks or proxies targeting Saudi oil infrastructure, prices could spike. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s push for nuclear energy signals a long-term shift away from oil dependency—a trend that could reduce global demand by 2040, accelerating the energy transition.
